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Big rub study a report: Chinese estate market does not have collapse definitely

From;  Author:Stand originally
Last week 5, one of 5 large investment banks of American Magenshidanli (abbreviation " big rub " ) release a research to report, a few analyst such as Lou Gang express in the report, "China each house price of main city falls urgently already. We think estate market dies dish of possibility is very tall, to banking profit will cause major impact. To banking profit will cause major impact..

Big rub still express, after this Chinese politic team passes research, reach the following conclusion: New round depreciation action will bring about landed market to break down, because floor price drops to be met normally,be a burden on clinchs a deal decrease; In addition, landed enterprise glides significantly besides occurrence gain outside, also face severe solvency difficulty probably; Bank profit performance also can be affected apparently, appear possibly 2009 gain enjoys growth.

Of the United States big rub have crisis consciousness very much it seems that. Estate market of China just has bit of a sign of disturbance or trouble, they go out with respect to the analysis " collapse dish possibility is very tall " , and ground of unable to hold oneself back is announced external, declare publicly common people.

If it is so? Deny. Yesterday, chinese country hair changes appoint the investigation that announces with national statistic bureau shows: This year August, china 70 big in urban house sale price rises compared to the same period 5.3% . It is of course compared to the same period with will compare last year in August, and last year August is Chinese house price mad when going up, go up development business is publicly to claim " felt embarrassed " . Compared to the same period house price rises the estate market of 5.3% , how be also apart from " collapse dish " still have 10 lis 8 lis, big rub if not be suffer from imaginary fears, it is sensational, both is resided surely firstly.

Pretty good, the building sale of these a few months drops somewhat, the market is wait-and-see atmosphere is grumous, consumer holds money to wait for buy. I think, be a burden on clinchs a deal reductive reason is not floor price drop, however floor price does not drop tardy, new round depreciation action fails to spread out in the round tardy, the profit of real-estate industry did not return reasonable interval tardy. The view that this is us and big rub different point, also be we and big rub the fundamental difference of those alleged China politic teams.

Building city of China has the problem with slow-moving high price only, die without par definitely dish likelihood. Big rub analysts, now American building city dies dish, the bank goes broke " between example " move China, the reality of city of building of apply mechanically China, was to estimate the market and national condition erroneously really. Chinese building city shows some houses, not be too much, lived to come nevertheless to the Chinese more, sell consequently did not move. The main contradiction of Chinese building city is the question with superhigh house price and consumer income too big difference. Once house price adjusts whole society the level of average profit margin, the current house that put an amount is grabbed immediately probably and smooth. Lei Man's brother went bankrupt, united States forest was bought, is the next big rub? Big rub also ought to analyse well to oneself, be in especially " clay idol crosses a river -- oneself one cannot say for sure " when the mouth.